A number of market forces drive the growth of battery storage system market rapidly. On one hand, battery-related companies such as material providers, battery makers, electric vehicle vendors, PV system integrator and heavy industry players are expanding their business area and building cross-industry opportunities to de-risk their primary business and generating secondary value streams. The ever-increasing demand helps with further economy of scale for battery manufacturing and results in drastic price reduction. On the other hand, the large deployment of distributed generation in behind-the-meter (BTM) sector and increasing renewable generations such as wind and solar in the grid-connected sector are requiring energy storage to be fit as part of whole system. It is interesting to find it is the general trend that the PV compensation scheme like feed-in-tariff is reducing by various countries globally, which may have a big impact in the further PV deployment. However, at the same time, favorable policies are addressing the importance of energy storage, including financial loans, subsidies, and incentive programs. The interest in energy storage will stimulate further deployment of renewable energy.
Those factors have provided the foundation for the hype brought by energy storage, especially electrochemical battery energy storage systems (BESS). With the launch of Tesla's Powerwall on April 30, 2015, tremendous interests have been attracted and a large number of players as well as products are overwhelming the market. BESS, with the capabilities to provide high energy, high power and both, have become an important consideration in grid-connected applications such generation, transmission & distribution networks and ancillary services. Increasing pilot and trial projects are on-going.
Comparison of current and future residential battery products in the market
Within this background, it is important to understand the reality behind the hype in the stationary battery markets covering residential, commercial & industrial (C&I), utility-scale application sectors.
It is obvious BESS can generate both economic values that can be monetized and values that are not directly monetized in the system. An important consideration is whether they can demonstrate positive economic return based on current price range and value streams, which is a significant factor when predicting the future deployment. Current regulatory frame structures are analysed and both opportunities and barriers are evaluated.
Technology is not the major driver, as analysed in this report. Case studies of various business models are shown and "go-to-market" strategies are suggested. It is important to introduce the "sharing economy" concept in energy system/device sector which is already not alien in other business areas. Examples include Airbnb and Uber.
Due to the different regulatory structure, supporting policies, electricity retail rates, penetration of renewables, customers' ability to pay, etc., the market development will vary from region to region. As shown in the figures, in ten-year's time the market value structure will change significantly globally.
BESS market value segmented by country
(2015: left, 2026: right)
The emerging market based on mature technologies will demonstrate huge potential, with a market value of $ 6 billion in ten-year's time.
This report focuses on electrochemical energy storage especially batteries applied in residential, commercial & industrial and grid storage sectors.
The research is done via a combination of primary (interviews, discussions, presentations) and secondary search (IDTechEx's database, website search and existing reports). The economic value of residential battery systems was calculated by IDTechEx while for the case of grid-scale applications, literature review is the main approach as the economies vary from case to case and are difficult to be evaluated in general.
Part 1 of the report shows what are emerging and what are happening, introducing existing products & companies in residential sectors and pilot projects in grid storage applications. Part 2 provides economic analysis of battery storage systems, starting with the introduction of available compensation schemes in the PV areas, values and benefits that battery storage systems can provide. After displaying the cost analysis, the economic values of battery storage systems used in behind-the-meter and front-of-the-meter will be evaluated. Based on those results, the global markets will be analysed in Part 3, with detailed regional analysis, current market status evaluation and ten-year market forecast segmented by application and region. "Go-to-market" strategies are offered in Part 4, including case studies in various business models and business expanding strategies. Part 5 and Part 6 provide background knowledge as well as insights in energy storage in general and different battery chemistries. Part 7 lists company profiles.
Key questions as shown below will be answered in the report:
- Where can energy storage be fit in the electricity system?
- What are the battery energy storage benefits/values?
- What are the number of projects and rated power in grid-connected energy storage and battery storage, segmented by project status, technology, company and country?
- How does the costs influence the deployment of battery storage systems?
- How does the cross industry expand the battery-related business scope?
- What are the market drivers?
- Are the battery energy storage systems economic/commercial in corresponding applications?
- What is the market status in various countries worldwide?
- What are the winning battery technology(ies)?
- Are there regulatory barriers?
- What threats are there in the market?
- What is the reality behind the hype?
- What are the price projects?
- What are the differences in opportunities between behind-the-meter market and utility-scale markets?
- What business models can capture most value streams?
- Which parts of the value chain stand to benefit the most?
- What is the potential market size?
- Which "go-to-market" strategies work better?
- Who are potential customers and active players?
Ten-year market forecasts are given in the following segment:
- Battery price projection in cell level, module level and system level 2015-2026
- Residential battery market forecast 2015-2026 in unit
- Residential battery market forecast 2015-2026 in capacity
- Residential battery market forecast 2015-2026 in value
- Cumulative rated power of deployed large-scale battery system forecast 2015-2026
- Cumulative values of deployed grid-connected battery systems
- Total global value of battery energy storage systems forecast 2015-2026 segmented by country
- Total global value of battery energy storage systems forecast 2015-2026 segmented by application
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