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ÇöÀçÀ§Ä¡ : HOME > ¸®Æ÷Æ® > ¿¡³ÊÁö > ½Å/Àç»ý¿¡³ÊÁö
The Global Wind Turbine Market, 2nd Edition 
¹ßÇà»ç SBI

¹ßÇàÀÏ 2011-11
ºÐ·®
¼­ºñ½ºÇüÅ Report
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The global wind turbine market experienced its first decline in over five years in 2010, dropping 15.9% to $42.3 billion as the pace of turbine installations in most countries slowed considerably. Total megawatts (MW) installed was down by 5.3% to 38,079 MW for 2010 and would have been much less if China had not taken a commanding lead in the market, installing almost half of all new global wind capacity during the year. The U.S., on the other hand, only installed half as much new capacity in 2010 as it did in 2009.

Despite continuing to be the largest wind turbine market for 2011, China's will no longer maintain its stratospheric growth in the market. China's wind turbine installations in 2011 will be 19,300 MW, just 2.0% more than in 2010. From a financial perspective the news is much worse, as still dropping turbine prices will force the Chinese wind turbine market down by 7.1% in 2011, a drop that will be only slightly recovered in 2012.

In the short term, curtailment of already installed wind systems because of inadequate transmission systems are going to be a large prohibitive factor against new wind developments in China and, to a lesser extent, in the U.S. and India. SBI Energy sees new wind turbine installations up by 12.0% in 2011 over 2010, but up only another 8.3% in 2012. In fact, it will not be until 2015 or 2016 that transmission issues in China are resolved sufficiently that the country will again achieve double digit growth in wind installations.

The U.S. continues to be the top import country for wind turbine generating sets in 2011, but the UK and Germany rose in ranking over Canada from 2010. Together these four countries account for just over half of all imports. Exports are typically dominated by Denmark and Germany, which together provide 60% of the world¡¯s wind turbine generating set exports. However, total exports will be up significantly in 2011 to $5.9 billion as manufacturers in soft wind markets such as Germany and Spain aggressively expand to other regions. Despite its position as the number one regional market in 2010 and again in 2011, China¡¯s wind turbine industry was almost entirely domestic and the country¡¯s wind turbine manufacturers exported very little product.

The wind turbine market is still most heavily influenced by government subsidies and this will continue through the next decade. The support or neglect of governments for wind energy is the main driver behind SBI Energy's three different forecast scenarios in this report. In the median scenario the world wind turbine market is going to climb to $72.8 billion in 2015, with a world total of 442 GW installed. With only moderate government help, the world market is going to reach $138.8 billion in 2020 with a cumulative 876 GW of wind turbines installed world wide. However, with poor government support the 2020 wind turbine market could be as low as $66.6 billion, and with exceptional government support the market could reach up to $326.9 billion at the end of the decade.

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