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카테고리 |
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The Impact of Carbon Regulation on Power Generation
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발행사
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Datamonitor
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발행일
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2008-12
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분량
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15 pages
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서비스형태
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Report
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판매가격
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Table of Contents
- DATAMONITOR VIEW
- ANALYSIS
- The current and likely future dynamics shaping the interrelationship between gas, oil, coal and carbon suggest that carbon prices will rise long term
- The prices of gas and carbon are exhibiting increased positive correlation trends, destabilized mostly by the seasonality of gas
- Oil is acting as a positively correlated non-seasonal gas proxy for carbon prices
- In the long term, carbon prices and energy prices are likely to increase
- Going forward, three likely scenarios will dictate the future correlation between fossil fuel prices and carbon prices
- Utilities are unlikely to decommission viable power plants unless the variable costs of continued operation exceed revenues
- Commercial breakeven without carbon pricing or incentives is caused by an inflexion in energy use, not fossil fuel switch-off
- The rapid scaling of ' green' energy sources will impact the commercial breakeven of all power generation technologies
- Carbon policies and peak oil dynamics are designed to steepen the fossil fuels supply curve, making clean energy more attractive
- To date, European utilities have gained more than they have ' pained' from European carbon regulation
- Power generators have three means of switching to less polluting thermal generation to hedge against the carbon externality
- An incumbent power utility' s decision to switch is generally made on the basis of different decision rules
- At current prices, a technological switch from coal to gas appears unlikely, regardless of the pricing rule adopted
- Under the EU ETS, long-term substitutions between coal-fired units and CCGT plants will take place under very restrictive conditions
- APPENDIX
- Ask the analyst
- Datamonitor consulting
- Disclaimer
- List of Figures
- Figure 1: The 60-day rolling correlation between gas and EU Allowance (EUA) prices has a long-term mostly positive upward trend
- Figure 2: The 60-day rolling correlation between Brent spot and EUA spot returns has a long-term upward trend and is largely positive
- Figure 3: Global cap and trade mechanisms will lead to higher carbon prices as the demand side scenario prevails
- Figure 4: Without carbon pricing, thermal plant breakeven varies with overall energy demand
- Figure 5: Theoretical plant commercial breakeven is driven down by (cap and trade) carbon pricing
- Figure 6: The divergence in ' 07 and ' 08 EUA prices has increased the potential and scale of windfall profits in the power sector
- Figure 7: The threshold carbon price varies depending on the decision rules adopted by power utilities
- Figure 8: When considering a switch, pricing and decision rules must first be considered
- Figure 9: Currently, EUA prices appear to be well below all of the power generation switching threshold scenarios
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