Table of Contents
Executive Summary
E.1 Market Environment for 40G and 100G Ethernet
E.1.1 Video Services Arrive: At Last
E.1.2 The Emerging Ethernet Paradigm
E.1.3 High Performance Computing (HPC)
E.1.4 Data Centers
E.1.5 40G and 100G Ethernet Transport
E.2 What Standards and MSAs are Going to Take Off and Why?
E.2.1 Standards Evolution
E.2.2 MSA Evolution
E.3 Likely Adoption Patterns for 40/100GigE
E.3.1 Adoption of 100 Gbps
E.3.2 Adoption of 40G Ethernet
E.4 Technology Options for High-Speed Networking
E.4.1 Opportunities in Parallelism
E.4.2 Opportunities in Seriality
E.4.3 Materials, Manufacturing Processes and Component Types for High-Speed Networks
E.5 Summary of Key Opportunities in 40G and 100G Ethernet
E.5.1 Lasers, Transmitters and TOSAs
E.5.2 Detectors, Receivers and ROSAs
E.5.3 Modulators
E.5.4 WDM Products
E.5.5 Media
E.5.6 Networking Silicon
E.6 Summary of Forecasts
Chapter One: Introduction
1.1 Background to this Report
1.1.1 Market Support for 40- and 100G Connections
1.2 Objectives of this Report
1.3 Scope of this Report
1.4 Methodology and Information Sources for Report
1.5 Plan of this Report
Chapter Two: Higher-speed Ethernet and its Applications Drivers
2.1 Introduction
2.2 Video is on the Rise and It’s Bandwidth Hungry
2.2.1 Videoconferencing, Telemedicine and Telelearning are Marginal Bandwidth Drivers
2.2.2 The Real Video Driver for 40 Gbps and Beyond: Consumer Video
2.3 The Role of High-Performance Computing
2.3.1 Bandwidth Requirements
2.3.2 The Trouble with InfiniBand
2.4 Servers, Data Centers and Enterprise Networks
2.4.1 Faster Interfaces and Aggregation: Fibre Channel and PCI Express
2.5 Central Offices, POPs and Internet Exchanges
2.5.1 VSR OC-768
2.6 Long-Haul, Metro and Access Networks
2.6.1 What Will Carrier 100 Gbps Look Like?
2.7 Network Requirements for 40G and 100G Networks
2.8 40G Ethernet in the Network
2.9 40G and 100G Design Architectures
2.10 Multiple PMD Types Supported by a Single Connector
Chapter Three: Evolution of Technology for 100-Gbps and 40-Gbps Networks
3.1 Introduction
3.2 40GBase-KR4 (1m Backplane) Technology
3.3 40GBase-CR4 and 100GBase-CR10 (10m Copper Cable) Technology
3.4 40GBase-SR4 and 100GBase-SR10 (100m MM Fiber) Technology
3.5 40GBase-LR4 (10km SM Fiber) Technology
3.6 100GBase-LR4 Technology
3.7 100GBase-ER4 Technology
3.8 Future Variants for 40G and 100G Ethernet
3.8.1 Future 40G Variants
3.8.2 Future 100G Variants
3.9 Basic Components for Higher-Speed Ethernet
3.9.1 Integration Imperative
3.9.2 Parallel vs. Serial Transmission
3.10 The Role for Optical Integration and Silicon Photonics
3.10.1 Materials Platforms for Optical Integration
3.11 Potential for Serial and Parallel Solutions for High-speed Optical Networks
3.12 Lasers, TOSAs and Modulators
3.12.1 Advanced Modulation Schemes
3.13 Detectors, Receivers and ROSAs
3.14 WDM and Waveguide Products
3.15 Amplifications and Dispersion Compensation for Next-Generation Networking
3.16 Media
3.16.1 Multi-Mode Fiber
3.16.2 Single-Mode Fiber
3.16.3 The Future of Parallel Optics
3.16.4 Active Optical Cabling
3.16.5 A Future for Copper?
Chapter Four: Evolution of Standards and MSAs Beyond 10-Gig
4.1 Introduction
4.2 The Higher Speed Ethernet Task Group
4.2.1 The IEEE process for 40G and 100G Ethernet
4.2.2 40G and 100G Ethernet Standards Development Objectives
4.3 What Will Be the Role of ITU/Carrier Standards?
4.3.1 Ethernet and SONET/SDH Evolution
4.3.2 Ethernet in a SONET/SDH World and the OTN
4.4 The Role of OIF
4.5 Use and Evolution of MSAs for 40- and 100-Gbps Networks
4.5.1 CX4 Connectors
4.5.2 Quad Small Form Factor Pluggable (QSFP) MSA
4.5.3 CXP MSA
4.5.4 CFP MSA
Chapter Five: Five-Year Forecasts of 40-Gbps and 100-Gbps Data Networks
5.1 Introduction
5.1.1 A Note on Pre-Standard Products
5.1.2 A Timetable for Next-Generation Ethernet
5.1.3 A View on 10-Gbps Networking
5.2 Forecasts for Evolution of 40-Gbps and 100-Gbps Ethernet: 2009 to 2016
5.2.1 Server Infrastructure Growth
5.2.2 Server Penetration Projections
5.2.3 Switch Port Projections
5.3 Forecasts for Evolution of 40-Gbps and 100-Gbps Pricing and Market Value
5.3.1 Forecasts for 40 Gbps and 100 Gbps by Application Type
5.4 The Future at 40 Gbps
5.5 A Note on Serial Solutions
5.6 Components Opportunity Forecast
Acronyms and Abbreviations Used in this Report
About the Author
List of Exhibits
Exhibit E-1 Core (WAN) and Server (LAN) Bandwidth Growth
Exhibit E-2: U.S. National Labs Supercomputer Internet Traffic
Exhibit E-3 40G and 100 G Ethernet MSA Roadmaps
Exhibit E-4 Implementations and Technology for 40G and 100G Networks
Exhibit E-5 Total Value of 40 GigE and 100 GigE Server, Switch and Router Market
Exhibit 1-1: Bandwidth Growth
Exhibit 1-2: Ethernet vs. SONET Data Rates
Exhibit 1-3 Component, Module and Subsystem Products Covered in this Report
Exhibit 2-1: Comparison of Data Capacity Requirements of TV vs. Internet
Exhibit 2-2: IPTV Bandwidth Evolution
Exhibit 2-3 Home Video Bandwidth
Exhibit 2-4: Architecture of a Typical Cray Supercomputer
Exhibit 2-5: InfiniBand Formats and Data Rates
Exhibit 2-6: Directions for the New 8-Gbps Fibre Channel Standards
Exhibit 2-7: Fibre Channel Roadmap
Exhibit 2-8: Today’s Network
Exhibit 2-9: 40GE and 100GE Network Adoption Points
Exhibit 2-10: 40G and 100G Ethernet Interfaces
Exhibit 2-11: HPC Interconnect Cables
Exhibit 3-1: Block Diagram of 40GBase-SR4 Optical Module
Exhibit 3-2: Block Diagram of 40GBase-LR4 Optical Module
Exhibit 3-3: Summary of Proposed 40GBase-LR4 Specifications
Exhibit 3-4: 100GBase-LR4 CFP Module Block Diagram
Exhibit 3-5: Summary of 100GBase-LR4 proposed specifications
Exhibit 3-6: Summary of 100GBase-ER4 Proposed Specifications
Exhibit 3-7: Technology Directions for 40- and 100-Gigabit Networks Adopted By the IEEE
Exhibit 3-8: Problems to be Overcome in Serial 100G Networks
Exhibit 3-9: Infinera PIC
Exhibit 3-10: Opportunities for Optical Integration in High-Speed Networks
Exhibit 3-11: NRZ at High Line Rates
Exhibit 3-12: Modulation Format Characteristics for Higher Speed Networking
Exhibit 4-1: IEEE 802.3ab Higher Speed Ethernet Standards Development Schedule
Exhibit 4-2: The Market Need for 40G Ethernet
Exhibit 4-3: CX4 Features
Exhibit 4-4: CX4 Connectors from Molex
Exhibit 4-5: QSFP Features
Exhibit 4-6: Luxtera's Active Cable Assembly Using the QSFP
Exhibit 4-7: QSFP Active Copper Cable from Quellan
Exhibit 4-8: CX Features
Exhibit 4-9: CXP Passive Copper Cable from Molex
Exhibit 4-10: Molex CXP Copper Cable Drawing and Dimensions
Exhibit 4-11: Molex CXP Card Cage Drawing and Dimensions
Exhibit 4-12: CFP Features
Exhibit 5-1: A Provisional Timetable for Next-Generation Ethernet
Exhibit 5-2: 40GigE and 100GigE Ports Shipped (Millions)
Exhibit 5-3: 40GigE and 100GigE Ethernet Market Projections
Exhibit 5-4: Market Value of 40/100 GigE Switch and Server Market at Equipment Level Prices
Exhibit 5-5: Market Value of 40/100 GigE Router Market at Equipment Level Prices
Exhibit 5-6: Total Value of 40/100-GigE Server, Switch and Router Market at Equipment Level Prices
Exhibit 5-7: Summary of 40GigE Ethernet Equipment Market by Application ($ Millions)
Exhibit 5-8: Summary of 100GigE Equipment Market by Application ($ Millions)
Exhibit 5-9: Future Options at 40 Gbps
Exhibit 5-10: 40GigE Transceiver Market by Variant
Exhibit 5-11: 100-GigE Transceiver Market by Variant
Exhibit 5-12: Expenditure on 40GigE Module Components
Exhibit 5-13 Expenditure on 100-GigE Module Components
Exhibit 5-14 TOSA and ROSA Market Estimates ($ millions)
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