EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: THE GLOBAL BOOM IN MOBILE MESSAGING APPS
The huge worldwide opportunity for messaging apps Messaging apps – a revolution in mobile communication The target – reaching 5.6bn smartphones in 2019 International leaders in mobile messaging: from KakaoTalk to WhatsApp Messaging apps are expanding globally out of Asia KakaoTalk – dominating South Korea Line – targeting half a billion worldwide registered users in 2014 WeChat – China’s first global tech giant? WhatsApp – the US leader, processing 50bn messages per day Messaging apps are a strategic threat to Twitter and Facebook The apps are next-generation social networks Key features of messaging apps Challenging incumbent social networks – Twitter and Facebook Hundreds of millions already embrace messaging apps Apps integrate entertainment, games, marketing, e-commerce and more Developing the apps into entertainment and utility platforms Driving the mobile entertainment and games markets Enabling opt-in marketing for major brands Creating markets for digital content and services Messaging apps beyond smartphones – TV sets and smartwatches Disruption for mobile operators Apps undermine carriers’ SMS revenues How are carriers responding?
1. KEY DRIVERS FOR EXPLOSIVE GROWTH
1.1. The boom in mobile Internet access and smartphones 1.2. Global smartphone adoption and data growth soar 1.3. Smartphone penetration around the world – major markets 1.4. Mobile owners embrace messaging apps as the “free” alternative to SMS 1.5. Apps engage users with multimedia communications and entertainment 1.6. Messaging services are available on feature phones
2. SWOT ANALYSIS – THE MAJOR PLAYERS IN GLOBAL MESSAGING
2.1. Overview: competitive issues for all messaging providers 2.2. KakaoTalk – South Korea 2.3. Kik Messenger – Canada 2.4. Laiwang – China 2.5. Line – Japan 2.6. Nimbuzz – India 2.7. Tango – USA 2.8. Viber – Cyprus 2.9. WeChat – China 2.10. WhatsApp – USA
3. GLOBAL RANKINGS OF MAJOR MESSAGING APPS
3.1. International surveys, excluding and including China 3.2. Device-based estimates of messaging app usage
4. PRIMARY NATIONAL MARKETS
4.1. National strongholds and international penetration 4.2. Messaging app user numbers in primary markets 4.3. Are mobile messaging apps natural monopolies? 4.4. Or can multiple messaging apps co-exist?
5. STRATEGIES FOR INTERNATIONAL EXPANSION
5.1. Intense competition for international markets 5.2. Strategies and marketing for international expansion 5.3. KakaoTalk – strategy of securing local partnerships 5.4. Line – solo entry into new markets 5.5. WeChat – multi-region marketing 5.6. WhatsApp – global organic growth without marketing 5.7. Localized features and content 5.8. Partnerships with handset manufacturers
6. GLOBAL COMPETITION
6.1. The enormous worldwide market potential 6.2. Comparing messaging services’ international registered users by country 6.3. Top messaging apps as measured by multi-country iOS downloads 6.4. Interest in messaging apps – Brazil, Russia, UK, USA 6.5. Comparing app engagement in Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand 6.6. China – WeChat faces growing competition 6.7. India – a key market for messaging companies 6.8. Indonesia 6.9. Japan 6.10. The Philippines 6.11. Taiwan 6.12. Spain and Spanish-speaking markets 6.13. Latin America 6.14. Argentina 6.15. Brazil 6.16. Mexico 6.17. The UK 6.18. South Africa 6.19. The USA 6.20. KakaoTalk, Line and WeChat say entering the USA is a major challenge
7. MESSAGING APPS vs SOCIAL NETWORKS
7.1. Battling for billions of global users 7.2. Messaging apps are mobile-native next-generation social networks 7.3. Protecting user privacy as a competitive advantage over social networks 7.4. For Facebook, mobile revenue is critical 7.5. Messaging apps are ahead of Facebook, by some metrics 7.6. Facebook’s strategy for mobile messaging 7.7. Facebook improves Messenger to combat messaging apps 7.8. Facebook For Every Phone – feature phone service 7.9. Twitter acknowledges that messaging apps are significant competitors 7.10. The apps may threaten Twitter’s monetization via Social TV 7.11. Expansion in Southeast Asia puts Twitter head-to-head with chat apps 7.12. Twitter’s strategy for mobile messaging 7.13. Google Hangouts
8. BUSINESS MODELS FOR MONETIZING APPS AND USERS
8.1. Competing strategies, business models and revenue sources 8.2. WhatsApp focuses on communication and annual subscription 8.3. Asian and other apps focus on entertainment 8.4. Games and stickers as key revenue generators 8.5. WeChat questions the value of stickers for revenue 8.6. Other digital content 8.7. Apps as utility platforms, facilitating m-commerce globally 8.8. Opt-in advertising and brand engagement 8.9. Marketing third-party apps 8.10. Cheap international voice calling 8.11. The enterprise market
9. VALUING MOBILE MESSAGING COMPANIES
9.1. Market caps and valuations of messaging companies, Twitter and Facebook 9.2. Values per monthly active user (MAU) or registered user
10. IS MOBILE GAMING THE FUTURE FOR MESSAGING APPS?
10.1. The opportunity in social mobile gaming 10.2. KakaoTalk, Line and WeChat – game downloads since launch 10.3. In-house game development and partnering with developers 10.4. National and international growth and localized games 10.5. Opportunities and challenges for mobile messaging games services
11. OPPORTUNITIES FOR BRAND MARKETING AND CONTENT SALES
11.1. Luxury brands on WeChat – reaching into the Chinese market 11.2. Companies plan to use WeChat more in 2014 11.3. Consumer brands, coupons and special offers 11.4. How WeChat manages brand engagement with users 11.5. Content sales via mobile messaging apps 11.6. Global sports teams and celebrities engage with fans
12. CHALLENGES TO BUSINESS MODELS AND EXPANSION
12.1. Challenges for business models and establishing sound revenue streams 12.2. Home competition, international expansion and cultural barriers 12.3. Regulatory suppression – governments banning messaging apps
13. IN-DEPTH COMPANY PROFILES: MAJOR MOBILE MESSAGING APPS
13.1. KakaoTalk · Overview · Funding and business model · Advertising services · Revenues · Company timeline · Major markets, user numbers and growth · Games platform 13.2. Kik · Overview · Funding and business model · Company timeline · Major markets, user numbers and growth 13.3. Laiwang (Alibaba) · Overview · Funding and business model · Company timeline · Major markets, user numbers and growth 13.4. Line · Overview · Funding and business model · Advertising services and e-commerce · Revenues · Company timeline · Major markets, user numbers and growth · Games platform 13.5. Nimbuzz · Overview · Funding and business model · Company timeline · Major markets, user numbers and growth 13.6. Tango · Overview · Funding and business model · Company timeline · Major markets, user numbers and growth 13.7. Viber · Overview · Funding and business model · Company timeline · Major markets, user numbers and growth 13.8. WeChat / Weixin (Tencent) · Overview · Funding and business model · Revenues and games figures · Company timeline · Carrier partnerships · Third-party services · Advertising services · Major markets, user numbers and growth 13.9. WeMeet / Weimi (Sina) · Overview · Funding · Company timeline 13.10. WhatsApp · Overview · Funding and business model · Company timeline · Carrier partnerships · Major markets, user numbers and growth 13.11. YiChat / Yixin (China Telecom and NetEase) · Overview · Funding and business model · Company timeline · Major markets, user numbers and growth 13.12. Youni (SNDA) · Overview · Funding · Company timeline
14. APPENDIX: STARTUPS IN BRIEF – NEW AND INNOVATIVE APPS
Figure 1: Global smartphone subscriptions forecast to 2019 (billions) Figure 2: International leaders in mobile messaging – main markets and global users Figure 3: Typical features of mobile messaging apps Figure 4: Mobile messaging apps compared with major social networks – global users Figure 5: Global and regional growth in smartphone subscriptions (2011 - 2019) Figure 6: Percentage of mobile owners with a smartphone (selected countries) Figure 7: KakaoTalk SWOT analysis Figure 8: Kik Messenger SWOT analysis Figure 9: Laiwang SWOT analysis Figure 10: Line SWOT analysis Figure 11: Nimbuzz SWOT analysis Figure 12: Tango SWOT analysis Figure 13: Viber SWOT analysis Figure 14: WeChat SWOT analysis Figure 15: WhatsApp SWOT analysis Figure 16: Top messaging and social networking apps globally (excluding China) Figure 17: Top messaging or social networking apps (% global smartphone users) Figure 18: Comparative usage of major messaging apps, globally Figure 19: Messaging apps ranked by average weekly minutes of usage, globally Figure 20: Messaging apps’ penetration in major markets on iPhones (%) Figure 21: Messaging apps ranked by user numbers in their primary market Figure 22: Average number of messaging apps installed on smartphones, by country Figure 23: Top reasons Singaporean smartphone users prefer messaging apps to SMS Figure 24: Top countries for smartphone sales in 2014 Figure 25: Top countries for new smartphone owners in 2014 Figure 26: Top countries by new owners as percentage of all sales in 2014 Figure 27: Top messaging apps in Brazil, China, Indonesia, South Africa and USA Figure 28: iOS messaging app downloads in Brazil, India, South Africa, UK, USA Figure 29: Social networking and messaging app engagement in Southeast Asia Figure 30: Messaging app engagement in Southeast Asia (minutes per user daily) Figure 31: Men vs women, messaging app engagement in Southeast Asia Figure 32: China – smartphone owners using messaging apps (%) Figure 33: China – competing mobile messaging apps: ownership and user numbers Figure 34: India – users of Facebook mobile and messaging apps (millions) Figure 35: India – top messaging apps on smartphones (% owners using) Figure 36: Indonesia – messaging apps used at least weekly (%) Figure 37: Japan – Facebook's growth in monthly active users (millions) Figure 38: The Philippines – messaging provider launches, marketing and partnerships Figure 39: Philippine carriers’ messaging data offers for consumers Figure 40: Taiwan – messaging app downloads for Android devices (millions) Figure 41: Latin America – smartphone owners using messaging apps, Sept 2013 (%) Figure 42: Argentina – smartphone owners using messaging apps, September 2013 (%) Figure 43: Brazil – smartphone owners using messaging apps, November 2013 (%) Figure 44: Brazil – smartphone owners using messaging apps, September 2013 (%) Figure 45: Mexico – smartphone owners using messaging apps, September 2013 (%) Figure 46: UK – growth in percentage of mobile owners using instant messaging Figure 47: UK – SMS volumes fall while mobile messaging soars in 2012 – 2014 Figure 48: UK use of messaging services, ranked by messages sent per week Figure 49: South Africa – mobile owners using messaging apps (%) Figure 50: South Africa – smartphone owners using messaging apps (%) Figure 51: USA – monthly hours spent on social networking by smartphone owners Figure 52: USA – messaging apps installed in iPhones: Sept 2013 (% with app) Figure 53: USA – smartphone owners using messaging apps (%) Figure 54: USA – top reasons why smartphone owners use messaging apps Figure 55: USA compared with India for chat usage on smartphones Figure 56: US messaging app usage trends June – October 2013 Figure 57: US messaging apps ranked by engagement (mins per day spent with app) Figure 58: Facebook Messenger vs WhatsApp for social messaging app usage Figure 59: Key elements of Facebook’s mobile messaging strategy Figure 60: Facebook Messenger – carrier partnerships for free or discounted access Figure 61: Facebook Messenger – main functionality Figure 62: Google Hangouts – main functionality Figure 63: Valuation ranges for mobile messaging providers Figure 64: Social networks and mobile messaging companies: market caps and estimated values (US $ billions) Figure 65: Social networks and mobile messaging companies: value per monthly active user or registered user (US $) Figure 66: Cumulative game downloads – KakaoTalk, Line and WeChat Figure 67: Messaging companies’ ties and partnerships with the mobile games sector Figure 68: Luxury and upmarket brand marketing campaigns in China via WeChat Figure 69: Kakao app family Figure 70: KakaoTalk – funding Figure 71: KakaoTalk – brand advertising services and effectiveness Figure 72: Kakao revenues and profits 2009 – 2013 (US $ millions) Figure 73: Kakao revenues 2011 – 2013 (US $ millions) Figure 74: Kakao profit and loss 2009 – 2012 (US $ millions) Figure 75: Kakao 2012 revenues by source (US $ millions) Figure 76: Kakao 2011 – 2012 revenues by source (%) Figure 77: KakaoGame – growth in revenues H2 2012 – H1 2013 (billion Korean won) Figure 78: KakaoTalk – major markets Figure 79: KakaoTalk – growth in registered users (millions) Figure 80: KakaoTalk development since launch (millions of global registered users) Figure 81: KakaoGame platform – major developments Figure 82: KakaoGame – growth in accumulated subscriptions in first 12 months Figure 83: Kik – funding Figure 84: Kik – growth in registered users (millions) Figure 85: Kik – development since launch (millions of global registered users) Figure 86: Laiwang – development since launch (millions of registered users) Figure 87: Line – app family Figure 88: Line – funding Figure 89: Line – advertising rates: official account for brands Figure 90: Line – advertising effectiveness: case studies Figure 91: Line – mobile messaging service 2013 quarterly results (yen) Figure 92: Line – mobile messaging service 2013 quarterly results, with sources Figure 93: Line – 2013 quarterly gross revenues by source (US $ millions) Figure 94: Line – 2013 quarterly gross revenues by source (%) Figure 95: Line – revenue from stickers, games and character merchandise Figure 96: Line – new 3C strategy, August 2013 Figure 97: Line – growth in global registered users (millions) Figure 98: Line – development since launch (millions of global registered users) Figure 99: Line – Japanese and international growth (registered users, millions) Figure 100: Line – Japanese vs international registered users (%) Figure 101: Line – major markets and international expansion Figure 102: Line – registered users by major markets: February 2014 (millions) Figure 103: Line app – iPhone penetration, selected countries September 2013 (%) Figure 104: Cumulative downloads of other Line apps, September 2013 (millions) Figure 105: Line Game downloads growth: July 2012 – November 2013 Figure 106: Nimbuzz – funding Figure 107: Nimbuzz – registered users, major markets: March 2013, August 2012 (m) Figure 108: Nimbuzz – registered users, major markets: March 2013, August 2012 (%) Figure 109: Nimbuzz – growth in registered users (millions) Figure 110: Nimbuzz development since launch (millions of global registered users) Figure 111: Tango – funding Figure 112: Tango – growth in global registered users (millions) Figure 113: Tango – development since launch (millions of global registered users) Figure 114: Viber – major markets and international expansion Figure 115: Viber – development since launch (millions of global registered users) Figure 116: WeChat carrier partnerships and consumer offers Figure 117: Companies offering services via WeChat: sectors and consumer services Figure 118: WeChat – growth in global registered users (millions) Figure 119: WeChat – development since launch (millions of global registered users) Figure 120: WeChat – growth in registered users outside China (millions) Figure 121: WeChat – development since launch (registered users outside China) Figure 122: WeChat – growth in global monthly active users (millions) Figure 123: WhatsApp – funding Figure 124: WhatsApp – carrier partnerships and consumer offers Figure 125: WhatsApp – growth in global monthly active users (millions) Figure 126: WhatsApp – growth in India (millions of monthly active users) Figure 127: WhatsApp – messaging growth: 2011 – 2013 (billions of messages per day) Figure 128: WhatsApp – growth in total messages sent and received per day (billions) Figure 129: WhatsApp – messages processed per user per day Figure 130: WhatsApp – images sent per day (millions) Figure 131: YiChat / Yixin – development since launch (millions of registered users)
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