Table of Contents 1. Executive summary Key Trends
2. Methodology 2.1. List of indicators by operator and country 2.2. Methodology
3. World LTE market 3.1. Main LTE markets 3.2. Main LTE markets (December 2015 figures) 3.3. LTE worldwide market: Top Ten countries 3.4. LTE worldwide market 3.5. LTE deployment roadmap: No more European players in the top 10 3.6. Outdoor LTE coverage 3.7. LTE coverage 3.8. LTE speeds 3.9. LTE capex picked up in 2014-2015, efforts focused on last hard-to-reach % of outdoor coverage and started to consider indoor coverage 3.10. LTE capex – Focus on NTT DOCOMO Xi/LTE capex and coverage 3.11. LTE capex – Focus on China Mobile LTE capex and coverage 3.12. LTE subscription forecasts by region 3.13. LTE revenues forecasts by region 3.14. LTE revenues forecasts by region
4. LTE Market in Europe 4.1. LTE European market 4.2. European market – Main trends 4.3. LTE subscription forecasts in Western Europe 4.4. LTE subscription forecasts in Central and Eastern Europe
5. LTE Market in the Americas 5.1. LTE American market 5.2. American market – Main trends 5.3. LTE subscription forecasts in North America 5.4. LTE subscription forecasts in Latin America
6. LTE Market in Asia-Pacific 6.1. LTE market in Asia-Pacific 6.2. Asian-Pacific market – Main trends 6.3. LTE subscription forecasts in Asia-Pacific
7. LTE Market in Middle East and Africa 7.1. LTE Middle East and African market 7.2. Middle East and African market – Main trends 7.3. LTE subscription forecasts in Middle East and Africa
8. LTE spectrum 8.1. Main radio spectrum 'trends' – 2014-2015 8.2. Outcomes from WRC-15: 700 MHz globally allocated for IMT in Region 1 8.3. Main LTE frequency bands: FDD & TDD 8.4. The 700 MHz band 8.5. 4G licences/spectrum price: 600, 800 MHz, 900 MHz, 1800 MHz, 2.1 GHz, AWS, PCS 8.6. 4G licences/spectrum price in 700 MHz frequencies 8.7. 4G spectrum in 700 MHz frequencies 8.8. The 600 MHz broadcast spectrum auction in the USA 8.9. 4G licences/spectrum price: 1800 MHz band 8.10. 4G licences/spectrum price: higher frequency bands
9. Technology update: LTE-Advanced, VoLTE and 5G 9.1. Carrier aggregation usage continues to grow throughout the world 9.2. 2x20 MHz carrier aggregation widely adopted. 3 & 4 CA on the starting block 9.3. The upcoming of LTE-Advanced Pro /4.5G 9.4. After repeated delays, Voice over LTE momentum is building 9.5. VoLTE deployments and launches around the world are accelerating 9.6. TD-LTE is still a nascent but growing system 9.7. Defining 5G performance requirements before standardizing 9.8. Work around 5G has already begun 9.9. It is a long road to 5G: research has started
10. LTE pricing 10.1. LTE pricing – LTE pricing strategies: tiered pricing versus unlimited 10.2. LTE pricing – Volume-based tiered pricing, the most common strategy 10.3. LTE pricing: players continue to look for ways to monetize data
Tables and Figures Figures
1. Executive summary Figure 1: Share of LTE subscriptions (Q4 2014- Q4 2015) Figure 2: LTE subscription estimates and forecasts (2013-2020)
3. World LTE market Figure 3: Share of LTE subscriptions in three lead countries (2011-2020) Figure 4: LTE subscription by region (Q4 2014 – Q4 2015) Figure 5: Breakdown of mobile customers by country and technology, end-2015 Figure 6: 3G & 4G average download speed in the UK (Q4 2014) Figure 7: Domestic wireless capex (2011-2015) Figure 8: Domestic LTE capex (2011-2016 budget) Figure 9: NTT DOCOMO quarterly LTE capex (June 2012-Dec. 2015) Figure 10: Number of premium 4G base stations and LTE coverage Figure 11: Domestic wireless capex and coverage Figure 12: LTE capex and LTE coverage Figure 13: Number of 4G base stations and LTE coverage Figure 14: LTE subscription estimates and forecasts by region, 2015-2020 Figure 15: Share of total LTE subscriptions by region, 2013-2020 Figure 16: LTE revenue estimates & forecasts, 2015-2020 Figure 17: LTE revenue distribution by region in 2015
4. LTE Market in Europe Figure 18: LTE subscriptions in Europe Figure 19: LTE subscription forecasts in Western Europe Figure 20: LTE subscription forecasts in Central and Eastern Europe
5. LTE Market in the Americas Figure 21: LTE subscriptions in the Americas Figure 22: LTE subscription forecasts in North America Figure 23: LTE subscription forecasts in Latin America
6. LTE Market in Asia-Pacific Figure 24: LTE subscriptions in Asia-Pacific Figure 25: LTE subscription forecast in Asia-Pacific
7. LTE Market in Middle East and Africa Figure 26: LTE subscriptions in Middle East and Africa Figure 27: LTE subscription forecast in Middle East and Africa
8. LTE spectrum Figure 28: The APT band plan Figure 29: Price of premium licences/spectrum (eurocents) per MHz per pop. (for 10 years) Figure 30: Price of 700 MHz licences/spectrum (eurocents) per MHz per pop. (for 10 years) Figure 31: Price of 1800 MHz licences/spectrum (eurocents) per MHz per pop. (for 10 years) Figure 32: Price of 2.6 GHz licences/spectrum (eurocents) per MHz per pop. (for 10 years)
9. Technology update: LTE-Advanced, VoLTE and 5G Figure 33: A la carte deployment should enable quicker deployment of Rel 13 than initially expected in this roadmap from 2014 Figure 34: Number of TD-LTE network launched by frequency bands Figure 35: Number of TD-LTE devices by form factor Figure 36: Performance objectives for 5G and associated use cases Figure 37: 5G roadmap Figure 38: LTE-U & LWA roadmaps
Tables
3. World LTE market Table 1: Ranking of countries by number of LTE mobile subscribers and proportion of the total LTE user base, end-2015 Table 2: LTE Worldwide Market : Top Ten countries Table 3: LTE operators, Q4 2013, Q4 2014 & Q4 2015 Table 4: LTE coverage for the Top Ten countries
4. LTE Market in Europe Table 5: LTE European market: Top 5 countries, at end 2013, 2014 and 2015
5. LTE Market in the Americas Table 6: LTE American market: Top 5 countries, at Q4 2015
6. LTE Market in Asia-Pacific Table 7: LTE Asian-Pacific market: Top 5 countries, at Q4 2015
7. LTE Market in Middle East and Africa Table 8: LTE Middle East and African market: Top 4 countries at Q4 2015
8. LTE spectrum Table 9: FDD bands worldwide Table 10: TDD bands worldwide Table 11: Status of the 700 MHz band Table 12: 12 LTE700 #28 services available, according to GSA
9. Technology update: LTE-Advanced, VoLTE and 5G Table 13: 300 Mbps commercial deployments in 2015-2016 Table 14: 2015-2016 VoLTE deployments Table 15: WiFi Calling deployments Database trackers Operators • Technology: LTE FDD, TD-LTE, LTE-Advanced, Mobile WiMAX, and version (such as MIMO 4¡¿2) • Deployment: description of coverage plans or obligation • Spectrum: quantity, frequency band, type (FDD, TDD) • Technical Data and main vendors: core network providers (+IMS), Radio Access Network (RAN) providers, maximum data rates (UL/DL), average data rates (UL/DL), devices • Outsourcing and sharing contracts • Capex • Services and tariffs: data package issues (such as monthly volume, associated data rates and restrictions), data M2M, voice • Subscribers and ARPU (historical data)
Countries • Background information: operators, LTE framework • Regulation: spectrum auctions, refarming
Type of data • Historical data 2010-2014 • Estimates for 2015 • Forecasts 2016-2020
Geographical coverage The global market for telecom services has been divided into five main zones: Europe, North America, Latin America, Asia-Pacific and Middle East and Africa. The countries below are detailed within each zone.
Asia-Pacific • Australia* • China* • Hong Kong* • India* • Indonesia • Japan* • Malaysia • New Zealand • Philippines • Singapore • South Korea* • Taiwan • Uzbekistan • Vietnam • Rest of AP
Western Europe • Austria • Belgium* • Denmark* • Finland* • France* • Germany* • Greece • Ireland • Italy* • Luxembourg • Netherlands* • Norway* • Portugal* • Spain* • Sweden* • Switzerland* • UK* • Rest of WE
Central & Eastern Europe • Czech Republic • Hungary • Poland • Russia* • Turkey* • Rest of CEE
Latin America • Argentina • Brazil* • Chile* • Mexico • Rest of Latam
North America • Canada* • USA*
Middle East-Africa • Bahrain • Morocco • Saudi Arabia • UAE • Rest of MEA
*Country sheet for spectrum available
Main operators analysed • 3 (Italy) • 3 (Ireland) • 3 (UK) • A1 - Mobilkom (Austria) • Aero2 (Poland) • AT&T Mobility (USA) • Base (Belgium) • Belgacom (Belgium) • Bell Mobility (Canada) • Bharti Airtel (India) • Bouygues Telecom (France) • CenturyTel (USA) • China Mobile (China) • China Telecom (China) • China Unicom (China) • Chunghwa Telecom (Taiwan) • Claro (Brazil) • Cosmote (Greece) • CSL (Hong Kong) • Deutsche Telekom (Germany) • Dish Network (USA) • DNA (Finland) • EE (UK) • Elisa (Finland) • E-Plus (Germany) • H3G (Austria) • H3G (Sweden) • Iliad Free Mobile (France) • KDDI (Japan) • KPN (Netherlands) • KT (South Korea) • LG U+ (South Korea) • Mobistar (Belgium) • MobileOne (Singapore) • MegaFon (Russia) • MetroPCS (USA) • MTS (Russia) • Net4mobility/Tele2 (Sweden) • NTT DOCOMO (Japan) • O2 Telefonica (Germany) • O2 Telefonica (UK) • Optus (Australia) • Orange (France) • Orange (Spain) • PCCW (Hong Kong) • Rogers Wireless (Canada) • SFR (France) • Singtel (Singapore) • SK Telecom (South Korea) • Smartone Vodafone (HK) • Softbank Mobile (Japan) • Sprint Nextel (USA) • Swisscom (Switzerland) • Tango (Luxembourg) • Telcel (Mexico) • Spark New-Zealand (New-Zealand) • Telefonica Moviles (Spain) • Telenor Mobile (Norway) • Telenor Mobile (Sweden) • TeliaSonera (Finland) • TeliaSonera (Norway) • TeliaSonera (Sweden) • Telstra (Australia) • Telus (Canada) • TIM (Italy) • TMN (Portugal) • T-Mobile (Austria) • T-Mobile (USA) • US Cellular (USA) • Verizon Wireless (USA) • VimpelCom (Russia) • Vivo (Brazil) • Vodafone (Germany) • Vodafone (Greece) • Vodafone (Italy) • Vodafone (Spain) • Vodafone (UK) • Wind (Italy) • Xfera-Yoigo (Spain) • Y!Mobile (Japan) • Yota (Russia)
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