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Executive Summary
E.1 Current and Future Market Environment for Next-Generation Networks
E.1.1 Paradigms Emerging
E.1.2 Just the Beginning for 100 Gbps
E.1.3 Emerging Options for High-Speed Networking
E.1.4 New Materials, Manufacturing Processes and Component Types for High-Speed Networks
E.2 Summary of Key Opportunities in Next-Generation Networks
E.2.1 Active Optics
E.2.2 WDM Products
E.2.3 Media
E.2.4 Networking Silicon
E.3 Firms Active in the Space
E.4 Summary of Forecasts
Chapter One: Introduction
1.1 Background to this Report
1.1.1 If You Make It, They Shall Come
1.2 Objectives of this Report
1.3 Scope of this Report
1.4 Methodology and Information Sources for Report
1.5 Plan of this Report
Chapter Two: Why and Where Is Beyond 10-Gig Needed?
2.1 Introduction
2.2 The Impact of Video on Bandwidth Demand
2.2.1 Thoughts on Videoconferencing
2.2.2 Thoughts on Telemedicine and Telelearning
2.2.3 Consumer Video: The Real Video Driver
2.3 The Role of High-Performance Computing
2.3.1 The Trouble with InfiniBand
2.4 Servers, Data Centers and Enterprise Networks
2.4.1 Faster Interfaces and Aggregation: Fibre Channel and PCI Express
2.5 Central Offices, POPs and Internet Exchanges
2.5.1 VSR OC-768
2.6 Long-Haul, Metro and Access Networks
2.6.1 What Will Carrier 100 Gbps Look Like?
Chapter Three: Evolution of Technology for 100 Gbps Networks
3.1 Introduction
3.1.1 Integration Imperative
3.1.2 Parallel vs. Serial Transmission
3.2 The Role for Optical Integration and Silicon Photonics
3.2.1 Materials Platforms for Optical Integration
3.2.2 Optical Integration and High-Speed Networking
3.3 Potential for Serial and Parallel Solutions for High-speed Optical Networks
3.4 Lasers, TOSAs and Modulators
3.4.1 Advanced Modulation Schemes
3.5 Detectors, Receivers and ROSAs
3.6 WDM and Waveguide Products
3.7 Amplifications and Dispersion Compensation for Next-Generation Networking
3.8 Media
3.8.1 Multi-mode Fiber
3.8.2 Single-Mode Fiber
3.8.3 The Future of Parallel Optics
3.8.4 Active Optical Cabling
3.8.5 A Future for Copper?
Chapter Four: Evolution of Standards and MSAs Beyond 10-Gig
4.1 Introduction
4.1.1 100 G Will Need More Cooperation on Standards Development
4.1.2 Rethinking MSAs
4.2 The Higher Speed Ethernet Task Group
4.2.1 Ethernets of the Past
4.2.2 The IEEE process for the Next-Gen Ethernet
4.2.3 Data Rates and How to Achieve Them
4.2.4 40-Gbps Alternatives
4.2.5 100-Gbps Alternatives
4.3 What Will Be the Role of ITU Standards?
4.3.1 SONET/SDH and Ethernet
4.3.2 Likely Future Directions for SONET/SDH:
4.3.3 Ethernet in a SONET/SDH World and the OTN
4.4 The Role of OIF
4.5 Use and Evolution of MSAs for 40- and 100-Gbps Networks
4.5.1 300-pin Transponders
4.5.2 XENPAK
4.5.3 XFP and SFP+
4.5.4 QSFP
4.5.5 SNAP12
4.5.6 POP4
4.5.7 Which MSA is likely to win?
Chapter Five: Eight-Year Forecasts of 40-Gbps and 100-Gbps Data Networks
5.1 Introduction
5.1.1 A Note on Pre-Standard Products
5.1.2 A Timetable for Next-Generation Ethernet
5.1.3 A View on 10-Gbps Networking
5.2 Forecasts for Evolution of 40-Gbps and 100-Gbps Ethernet: 2009 to 2016
5.2.1 Server Infrastructure Growth
5.2.2 Server Penetration Projections
5.2.3 Switch Port Projections
5.3 Forecasts for Evolution of 40-Gbps and 100-Gbps Pricing and Market Value
5.3.1 Forecasts for 40 Gbps and 100 Gbps by Application Type
5.4 The Future at 40 Gbps
5.4.1 Alternative Scenario: Life Without 40GigE
5.5 A Note on Parallelism
5.6 Components Opportunity Forecast
Acronyms and Abbreviations Used in this Report
About the Author
Table of Figures:
Exhibit E-1: The Paths to Higher Speed Networks
Exhibit E-2: Applications and Markets for Next-Generation Networks
Exhibit E-3: Options and Opportunities from Next-Generation Networks
Exhibit E-4: Summary Eight-Year Market Forecasts of 100 Gbps and 40 Gbps ($ Millions)
Exhibit 1-1: Component, Module and Subsystem Products Covered in this Report
Exhibit 2-1: InfiniBand Formats and Data Rates
Exhibit 2-2: Directions for the New 8-Gbps Fibre Channel Standards
Figure 1-1: Fibre Channel Roadmap (Source: Fibre Channel Industry Association)
Exhibit 3-1: Technology Directions for 40- and 100-Gigabit Networks Adopted By the IEEE
Exhibit 3-2: Problems to be Overcome in Serial 100G Networks
Exhibit 3-3: Opportunities for Optical Integration in High-Speed Networks
Exhibit 3-4: New Laser Integrated Products for Parallel Solutions
Exhibit 3-5: NRZ at High Line Rates
Exhibit 3-6: Technology Choices: Opportunities and Timetables in the Transmission Segment
Exhibit 3-7: Modulation Format Characteristics for Higher Speed Networking
Figure 4-2: IEEE 802.3ab Higher Speed Ethernet Standards Development Schedule
Exhibit 4-1: IEEE Higher Speed Task Group 40 and 100-Gigabit Laser Considerations
Figure 4-3: Luxtera's Active Cable Assembly Using the QSFP
Figure 4-4: 300-pin VSR Transponder Using SNAP12 Modules (Source: Cisco)
Exhibit 5-1: A Provisional Timetable for Next-Generation Ethernet
Exhibit 5-2: Evolution of Gigabit Networks
Exhibit 5-3: Forecast of 40 GigE and 100 GigE Markets
Exhibit 5-4: Forecast of Server Markets for 40 GigE and 100 GigE
Exhibit 5-5: Forecast of Switch Markets for 40 GigE and 100 GigE
Exhibit 5-6: Forecast of Router Markets for 40 GigE and 100 GigE
Exhibit 5-7: Forecast of Emerging Ethernet Markets by Application ($ Millions)
Exhibit 5-8: Future Options at 40 Gbps
Exhibit 5-9: Forecast of 100 GigE Markets if 40 GigE Does Not Appear
Exhibit 5-10: Forecast of Next-Generation Ethernet Components
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