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Table of Contents 1. Report Overview 1.1 Oil Sands Market Overview 1.2 Market Structure Overview and Market Definition 1.3 Why You Should Read this Report 1.4 How this Report Delivers 1.5 Key Questions Answered by this Analytical Report Include: 1.6 Who is this Report For? 1.7 Methodology 1.8 Frequently Asked Questions 1.9 Associated Visiongain Reports 1.10 About Visiongain 2. Introduction to the Oil Sands Market 2.1 Oil Sands, Bitumen and Heavy Oil
2.1.1 Heavy Oil Defined
2.1.2 Oil Grading and Oil Sands: Heavy vs Light, Sour vs Sweet 2.2 Oil Sands Reserves
2.3 Oil Sands Extraction
2.3.1 In-Situ Drilling
2.3.1.1 Cyclic Steam Simulation (CSS)
2.3.1.2 Steam-Assisted Gravity Drainage (SAGD)
2.3.1.3 Other In-Situ Oil Sands Extraction
2.3.2 Surface Mining 2.4 Oil Sands Upgrading 2.5 Oil Sands Transportation 3. The Oil Sands Market 2015-2025 3.1 Oil Sands Market Forecast 2015-2025: Three Oil Price Scenarios
3.1.1 CAPEX and OPEX Forecasts
3.1.2 Production Forecasts 3.2 Oil Sands Market Drivers and Restraints 3.3 Natural Gas Prices 3.4 Oil Prices
3.4.1 Supply-Side Factors
3.4.1.1 Tight Oil
3.4.1.2 Libya
3.4.1.3 OPEC
3.4.2 Demand-Side Factors
3.4.2.1 Chinese and Indian Growth
3.4.3 Visiongain’s Oil Price Assumptions
3.4.3.1 Low Oil Price Scenario
3.4.3.2 High Oil Price Scenario 3.5 Election of the New Democratic Party in Alberta 4. Oil Sands Submarkets 2015-2025 4.1 In-Situ Submarket Forecast 2015-2025
4.1.1 In-Situ Submarket 2015-2025: Anticipated Oil Price Scenario
4.1.2 In-Situ Submarket 2015-2025: Low Oil Price Scenario
4.1.3 In-Situ Submarket 2015-2025: High Oil Price Scenario
4.1.4 Analysis of the In-Situ Submarket
4.1.4.1 Current and Future In-Situ Oil Sands Production
4.1.4.2 The Economics of Thermal Production from the Oil Sands
4.1.5 In-Situ Projects 4.2 Mining and Upgrading Submarket Forecast 2015-2025
4.2.1 Mining and Upgrading Submarket 2015-2025: Anticipated Oil Price Scenario
4.2.2 Mining and Upgrading Submarket 2015-2025: Low Oil Price Scenario
4.2.3 Mining and Upgrading Submarket 2015-2025: High Oil Price Scenario
4.2.4 Analysis of the Mining and Upgrading Submarket
4.2.4.1 Current and Future Oil Sands Mining Production
4.2.4.2 The Economics of the Mining and Upgrading Submarket
4.2.5 Mining and Upgrading Projects 5. National and Regional Oil Sands Market Forecasts 2015-2025 5.1 Oil Sands Geographical Submarkets 5.2 Canadian Oil Sands Market and Submarket Forecasts 2015-2025: Three Oil Price Scenarios
5.2.1 Canadian Oil Sands Regions
5.2.1.1 Athabasca Oil Sands Market and Submarket Forecasts 2015-2025
5.2.1.2 Cold Lake Oil Sands Market and Submarket Forecasts 2015-2025
5.2.1.3 Peace River Oil Sands Market and Submarket Forecasts 2015-2025
5.2.1.4 Industrial Heartland Oil Sands Market and Submarket Forecasts 2015-2025 5.3 Rest of the World Oil Sands Market and Submarket Forecasts 2015-2025
5.3.1 Rest of the World Oil Sands Analysis
5.3.2 Rest of the World Oil Sands Market Outlooks
5.3.2.1 Congolese Oil Sands Outlook
5.3.2.2 Chinese Oil Sands Outlook
5.3.2.3 Madagascan Oil Sands Outlook
5.3.2.4 US Oil Sands Outlook 6. PEST Analysis of the Oil Sands Market 2015-2025 7. Expert Opinion 7.1 Prosper Petroleum
7.1.1 Prosper Petroleum’s Involvement in the Oil Sands Market
7.1.2 In-Situ Technologies
7.1.3 Oil Sands Economics
7.1.4 Future Oil Sands Market Developments 8. Leading Companies in the Oil Sands Market 8.1 The Ten Leading Companies in the Oil Sands Market
8.1.1 Suncor
8.1.2 Canadian Oil Sands
8.1.3 Royal Dutch Shell
8.1.4 Canadian Natural Resources (CNRL)
8.1.5 Imperial Oil
8.1.6 ConocoPhillips
8.1.7 Cenovus
8.1.8 MEG Energy
8.1.9 Devon Energy
8.1.10 China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) 9. Conclusions and Recommendations 9.1 Oil Sands Market Outlook 9.2 Key Findings in the Oil Sands Market 9.3 Key Recommendations for the Oil Sands Market 10. Glossary
List of Tables
Table 1.1 Oil Sands CAPEX and OPEX Forecasts 2015-2025: Anticipated Oil Price Scenario, Low Oil Price Scenario and High Oil Price Scenario ($m, AGR %)
Table 2.1 Comparison of Oil Grading By Leading Energy Agencies (⁰API, Viscosity cP)
Table 2.2 API Gravity of leading Benchmark Crude Oils (° API)
Table 2.3 Rate of Recovery by Oil Sands Extraction Method
Table 2.4 Canadian Synthetic Crude Producers, Type and Name of Crude
Table 2.5 Canadian Dilbit Crude Producers, Characteristics, and Name of Crude
Table 3.1 Oil Sands Market Forecast 2015-2025: Anticipated Oil Price Scenario, Low Oil Price Scenario and High Oil Price Scenario ($bn, AGR %)
Table 3.2 Oil Sands CAPEX and OPEX Forecasts 2015-2025: Anticipated Oil Price Scenario, Low Oil Price Scenario and High Oil Price Scenario ($m, AGR %)
Table 3.3 Oil Sands Production Forecast 2015-2025: Anticipated Oil Price Scenario, Low Oil Price Scenario and High Oil Price Scenario (Mbpd)
Table 3.4 Oil Sands Market Drivers and Restraints
Table 3.5 Visiongain’s Assumed Henry Hub Spot Gas Price $/MMbtu (2015, 2016, 2017-2020, 2021-2025)
Table 3.6 Visiongain’s Assumed WTI Oil Price, High Oil Price Scenario and Low Price Scenario $/bbl (2015, 2016, 2017-2020, 2021-2025)
Table 4.1 Oil Sands Anticipated Oil Price Submarket Forecasts 2015-2025 ($m, Mbpd)
Table 4.2 In-Situ Submarket Anticipated Oil Price Forecast 2015-2025 (Mbpd, $bn, AGR %, CAGR %)
Table 4.3 In-Situ Submarket Low Oil Price Forecast 2015-2025 (Mbpd, $bn, AGR %, CAGR %)
Table 4.4 In-Situ Submarket Low Oil Price Forecast 2015-2025 (Mbpd, $bn, AGR %, CAGR %)
Table 4.5 Operational In-Situ Projects (Company Name, Project Name, Technology, Start Date, BPD Production, BPD Capacity)
Table 4.6 Under-Construction In-Situ Projects (Company Name, Project Name, Technology, Construction Period, BPD Capacity, $m CAPEX)
Table 4.7 Prospective In-Situ Oil Sands Projects (Company Name, Project Name, Technology, BPD Capacity, $m CAPEX, Construction Length)
Table 4.8 Mining and Upgrading Submarket Anticipated Oil Price Forecast 2015-2025 (Mbpd, $bn, AGR %, CAGR %)
Table 4.9 Mining and Upgrading Submarket Low Oil Price Forecast 2015-2025 (Mbpd, $bn, AGR %, CAGR %)
Table 4.10 Mining and Upgrading Submarket High Oil Price Forecast 2015-2025 (Mbpd, $bn, AGR %, CAGR %)
Table 4.11 Operational Oil Sands Mining Projects (Company Name, Project Name, Start Date, BPD Production, BPD Capacity)
Table 4.12 Under-Construction Oil Sands Mining Projects (Company Name, Project Name, Construction Period, BPD Capacity, $m CAPEX)
Table 4.13 Operational Oil Sands Upgrading Projects (Company Name, Project Name, Start Date, BPD Capacity)
Table 4.14 Prospective Oil Sands Mining Projects (Company Name, Project Name, BPD Capacity, $m CAPEX, Construction)
Table 4.15 Under-Construction Oil Sands Upgrading Projects (Company Name, Project Name, Construction Period, BPD Capacity, $m CAPEX)
Table 5.1 Oil Sands Geographic Submarkets Anticipated Oil Price Forecast 2015-2025 (Mbpd Production, $m Spending, AGR %)
Table 5.2 Canadian Oil Sands Market CAPEX, OPEX and Production Forecasts 2015-2025: Anticipated Oil Price Scenario, Low Oil Price Scenario, High Oil Price Scenario ($bn, MMbpd, Cumulative)
Table 5.3 Canadian Oil Sands Existing Projects by Region, 2014 Production (bpd), 2014 CAPEX and OPEX ($m)
Table 5.4 Canadian Oil Sands Under-Construction Projects by Region, Capacity (bpd), 2014 CAPEX ($m)
Table 5.5 Athabasca Oil Sands Market and Submarket Anticipated Oil Price Forecasts 2015-2025 ($m, Mbpd)
Table 5.6 Athabasca Oil Sands Market and Submarket Low Oil Price Forecasts 2015-2025 ($m, Mbpd)
Table 5.7 Athabasca Oil Sands Market and Submarket High Oil Price Forecasts 2015-2025 ($m, Mbpd)
Table 5.8 Operational Athabasca Region In-Situ Oil Sands Projects (Company Name, Project Name, Technology, Start Date, BPD Production, BPD Capacity)
Table 5.9 Under-Construction Athabasca Region In-Situ Oil Sands Projects (Company Name, Project Name, Technology, Construction Period, BPD Capacity, $m CAPEX)
Table 5.10 Prospective Athabasca Region In-Situ Oil Sands Projects (Company Name, Project Name, Technology, BPD Capacity, $m CAPEX, Construction)
Table 5.11 Operational Athabasca Region Oil Sands Mining Projects (Company Name, Project Name, Start Date, BPD Production, BPD Capacity)
Table 5.12 Under-Construction Athabasca Region Oil Sands Mining Projects (Company Name, Project Name, Construction Period, BPD Capacity, $m CAPEX)
Table 5.13 Operational Athabasca Region Oil Sands Upgrading Projects (Company Name, Project Name, Start Date, BPD Capacity)
Table 5.14 Under-Construction Athabasca Oil Sands Upgrading Projects (Company Name, Project Name, Construction Period, BPD Capacity, $m CAPEX)
Table 5.15 Cold Lake Oil Sands Market Anticipated Oil Price Forecasts 2015-2025 ($m, Mbpd)
Table 5.16 Cold Lake Oil Sands Market Low Oil Price Forecasts 2015-2025 ($m, Mbpd)
Table 5.17 Cold Lake Oil Sands Market High Oil Price Forecasts 2015-2025 ($m, Mbpd)
Table 5.18 Operational Cold Lake Region Oil Sands Projects (Company Name, Project Name, Technology, Start Date, BPD Production, BPD Capacity)
Table 5.19 Prospective Cold Lake Region Oil Sands Projects (Company Name, Project Name, Technology, BPD Capacity, $m CAPEX, Construction)
Table 5.20 Peace River Oil Sands Market and Submarket Anticipated Oil Price Forecasts 2015-2025 ($m, Mbpd)
Table 5.21 Peace River Oil Sands Market Low Oil Price Forecasts 2015-2025 ($m, Mbpd)
Table 5.22 Peace River Oil Sands Market and Submarket High Oil Price Forecasts 2015-2025 ($m, Mbpd)
Table 5.23 Operational Peace River Region Oil Sands Projects (Company Name, Project Name, Technology, Start Date, BPD Production, BPD Capacity)
Table 5.24 Prospective Cold Lake Region Oil Sands Projects (Company Name, Project Name, Technology, BPD Capacity, $m CAPEX, Construction)
Table 5.25 Industrial Heartland Oil Sands Market Forecast 2015-2025 ($m, Mbpd)
Table 5.26 Rest of the World Oil Sands Market CAPEX, OPEX and Production Forecasts 2015-2025($m, bpd, Cumulative)
Table 5.27 Known Oil Sands Reserves Outside Canada (Country, Reserves [Bbbls], Reserve Characteristic, Proportion of Global Total [%])
Table 5.28 US Oil Sands Mining Projects (Company Name, Project Name, BPD Capacity, $m CAPEX, Construction)
Table 6.1 PEST Analysis of the Oil Sands Market 2014-2024
Table 8.1 Ten Leading Companies in the Oil Sands Market (Ranking, Company, 2014 BPD Production, % Market Share)
Table 8.2 Leading Companies in the In-Situ Oil Sands Market (Ranking, Company, 2014 BPD Production, % Market Share)
Table 8.3 Leading Companies in the Mining Oil Sands Market (Ranking, Company, 2014 BPD Production, % Market Share)
Table 8.4 Overview of Suncor in the Oil Sands Market: Headquarters, Employees, Stock Exchange, 2014 Production (bpd), 2014 Market Share (%)
Table 8.5 Overview of Canadian Oil Sands in the Oil Sands Market: Headquarters, Employees, Stock Exchange, 2014 Production (bpd), 2014 Market Share (%)
Table 8.6 Overview of Shell in the Oil Sands Market: Headquarters, Employees, Stock Exchange, 2014 Production (bpd), 2014 Market Share (%)
Table 8.7 Overview of CNRL in the Oil Sands Market: Headquarters, Employees, Stock Exchange, 2014 Production (bpd), 2014 Market Share (%)
Table 8.8 Overview of Imperial Oil in the Oil Sands Market: Headquarters, Employees, Stock Exchange, 2014 Production (bpd), 2014 Market Share (%)
Table 8.9 Overview of ConocoPhillips in the Oil Sands Market: Headquarters, Employees, Stock Exchange, 2014 Production (bpd), 2014 Market Share (%)
Table 8.10 Overview of Cenovus in the Oil Sands Market: Headquarters, Employees, Stock Exchange, 2014 Production (bpd), 2014 Market Share (%)
Table 8.11 Overview of MEG Energy in the Oil Sands Market: Headquarters, Employees, Stock Exchange, 2014 Production (bpd), 2014 Market Share (%)
Table 8.12 Overview of Devon Energy in the Oil Sands Market: Headquarters, Employees, Stock Exchange, 2014 Production (bpd), 2014 Market Share (%)
Table 8.13 Overview of CNOOC in the Oil Sands Market: Headquarters, Employees, Stock Exchange, 2014 Production (bpd), 2014 Market Share (%)
List of Figures
Figure 1.1 Global Oil Sands Market Structure Overview
Figure 1.2 Oil Sands Scenario Forecasting Structure Overview
Figure 2.1 Viscosity of Canadian Crude Oil by Region (cP, ºCelsius)
Figure 2.2 Canadian Oil Sands Deposits in Alberta
Figure 2.3 Global Oil Sands Reserves (Billion Barrels, status: recoverable, unknown, or oil in place)
Figure 2.4 The Cyclic Steam Stimulation (CSS) Process
Figure 2.5 The Steam-Assisted Gravity Drainage (SAGD) Process
Figure 2.6 The Oil Sands Surface Mining Process
Figure 2.7 Map of Current and Planned North American Liquid Fuel Pipelines
Figure 2.8 Map of Major Rail Infrastructure in the US and Canada
Figure 3.1 Oil Sands Market Forecast 2015-2025: Anticipated Oil Price Scenario, Low Oil Price Scenario and High Oil Price Scenario ($bn)
Figure 3.2 Oil Sands CAPEX Forecast 2015-2025: Anticipated Oil Price Scenario, Low Oil Price Scenario and High Oil Price Scenario ($bn)
Figure 3.3 Oil Sands OPEX Forecast 2015-2025: Anticipated Oil Price Scenario, Low Oil Price Scenario and High Oil Price Scenario ($bn)
Figure 3.4 Oil Sands Anticipated Oil Price CAPEX and OPEX Share Forecast, 2015 ($m, %)
Figure 3.5 Oil Sands Anticipated Oil Price CAPEX and OPEX Share Forecast, 2020 ($m, %)
Figure 3.6 Oil Sands Anticipated Oil Price CAPEX and OPEX Share Forecast, 2025 ($m, %)
Figure 3.7 Oil Sands Production Forecast 2015-2025: Anticipated Oil Price Scenario, Low Oil Price Scenario and High Oil Price Scenario (Mbpd)
Figure 3.8 Henry Hub and Alberta (AECO-C) Natural Gas Spot Price ($/MMbtu), 2000-Q1 2015
Figure 3.9 Visiongain’s Assumed Henry Hub Spot Gas Price $/MMBtu (2015, 2016, 2017-2020, 2021-2025)
Figure 3.10 Monthly WTI and WCS Oil Prices January 2011 - February 2015 ($/bbl)
Figure 3.11 US Crude Oil Production From Different Sources, 1990-2040 (MMbpd)
Figure 3.12 Chinese and Indian Annual GDP Growth 2005-2013 (%)
Figure 3.13 Visiongain’s Assumed WTI Oil Price, High Oil Price Scenario and Low Price Scenario $/bbl (2015, 2016, 2017-20, 2021-25)
Figure 4.1 Oil Sands Anticipated Oil Price Submarket Share Forecasts, 2015 ($m, %)
Figure 4.2 Oil Sands Anticipated Oil Price Submarket Share Forecasts, 2020 ($m, %)
Figure 4.3 Oil Sands Anticipated Oil Price Submarket Share Forecasts, 2025 ($m, %)
Figure 4.4 Oil Sands Submarket Forecasts 2015-2025 ($m)
Figure 4.5 Oil Sands Submarket Spending Share Forecast, 2015-2025 ($m)
Figure 4.6 In-Situ Submarket Anticipated Oil Price Spending Forecast 2015-2025 ($bn)
Figure 4.7 In-Situ Submarket Anticipated Oil Price Production Forecast 2015-2025 (Mbpd)
Figure 4.8 In-Situ Market Share Forecast 2015, 2020 and 2025 (% Share)
Figure 4.9 In-Situ Submarket Low Oil Price Spending Forecast 2015-2025 ($bn)
Figure 4.10 In-Situ Submarket Low Oil Price Production Forecast 2015-2025 (Mbpd)
Figure 4.11 In-Situ Submarket High Oil Price Spending Forecast 2015-2025 ($bn)
Figure 4.12 In-Situ Submarket High Oil Price Production Forecast 2015-2025 (Mbpd)
Figure 4.13 Mining and Upgrading Submarket Anticipated Oil Price Spending Forecast 2015-2025 ($bn)
Figure 4.14 Mining and Upgrading Submarket Anticipated Oil Price Production Forecast 2015-2025 (Mbpd)
Figure 4.15 In-Situ Market Share Forecast 2015, 2020 and 2025 (% Share)
Figure 4.16 Mining and Upgrading Submarket Low Oil Price Spending Forecast 2015-2025 ($bn)
Figure 4.17 Mining and Upgrading Submarket Low Oil Price Production Forecast 2015-2025 (Mbpd)
Figure 4.18 Mining and Upgrading Submarket High Oil Price Spending Forecast 2015-2025 ($bn)
Figure 4.19 Mining and Upgrading Submarket High Oil Price Production Forecast 2015-2025 (Mbpd)
Figure 5.1 Oil Sands Geographic Submarkets Anticipated Oil Price Forecasts 2015-2025 ($m)
Figure 5.2 Oil Sands Geographic Submarkets Anticipated Oil Price Share Forecast, 2015 ($m, %)
Figure 5.3 Oil Sands Geographic Submarkets Anticipated Oil Price Share Forecast, 2020 ($m, %)
Figure 5.4 Oil Sands Geographic Submarkets Anticipated Oil Price Share Forecast, 2025 ($m, %)
Figure 5.5 Canadian Oil Sands Market CAPEX Forecast 2015-2025: Anticipated Oil Price Scenario, Low Oil Price Scenario, High Oil Price Scenario ($bn)
Figure 5.6 Canadian Oil Sands Market OPEX Forecast 2015-2025: Anticipated Oil Price Scenario, Low Oil Price Scenario, High Oil Price Scenario ($bn)
Figure 5.7 Canadian Oil Sands Market Production Forecast 2015-2025: Anticipated Oil Price Scenario, Low Oil Price Scenario, High Oil Price Scenario (MMbpd)
Figure 5.8 Canadian Oil Sands Deposits in Alberta
Figure 5.9 Athabasca Oil Sands Anticipated Oil Price In-Situ CAPEX and OPEX Forecasts 2015-2025 ($m)
Figure 5.10 Athabasca Oil Sands Anticipated Oil Price In-Situ Production Forecast 2015-2025 (Mbpd, AGR %)
Figure 5.11 Athabasca Oil Sands Anticipated Oil Price Mining CAPEX and OPEX Forecasts 2015-2025 ($m)
Figure 5.12 Athabasca Oil Sands Anticipated Oil Price Mining Production Forecast 2015-2025 (Mbpd, AGR %)
Figure 5.13 Athabasca Oil Sands Low Oil Price In-Situ CAPEX and OPEX Forecasts 2015-2025 ($m)
Figure 5.14 Athabasca Oil Sands Low Oil Price In-Situ Production Forecast 2015-2025 (Mbpd, AGR %)
Figure 5.15 Athabasca Oil Sands Low Oil Price Mining CAPEX and OPEX Forecasts 2015-2025 ($m)
Figure 5.16 Athabasca Oil Sands Low Oil Price Mining Production Forecast 2015-2025 (Mbpd, AGR %)
Figure 5.17 Athabasca Oil Sands High Oil Price In-Situ CAPEX and OPEX Forecasts 2015-2025 ($m)
Figure 5.18 Athabasca Oil Sands High Oil Price In-Situ Production Forecast 2015-2025 (Mbpd, AGR %)
Figure 5.19 Athabasca Oil Sands High Oil Price Mining CAPEX and OPEX Forecasts 2015-2025 ($m)
Figure 5.20 Athabasca Oil Sands High Oil Price Mining Production Forecast 2015-2025 (Mbpd, AGR %)
Figure 5.21 Cold Lake Oil Sands Anticipated Oil Price CAPEX and OPEX Forecasts 2015-2025 ($m)
Figure 5.22 Cold Lake Oil Sands Anticipated Oil Price Production Forecast 2015-2025 (Mbpd, AGR %)
Figure 5.23 Cold Lake Oil Sands Low Oil Price CAPEX and OPEX Forecasts 2015-2025 ($m)
Figure 5.24 Cold Lake Oil Sands Low Oil Price Production Forecast 2015-2025 (Mbpd, AGR %)
Figure 5.25 Cold Lake Oil Sands High Oil Price CAPEX and OPEX Forecasts 2015-2025 ($m)
Figure 5.26 Cold Lake Oil Sands High Oil Price Production Forecast 2015-2025 (Mbpd, AGR %)
Figure 5.27 Peace River Oil Sands Anticipated Oil Price CAPEX and OPEX Forecasts 2015-2025 ($m)
Figure 5.28 Peace River Oil Sands Anticipated Oil Price Production Forecast 2015-2025 (bpd, AGR %)
Figure 5.29 Peace River Oil Sands Low Oil Price CAPEX and OPEX Forecasts 2015-2025 ($m)
Figure 5.30 Peace River Oil Sands Anticipated Oil Price Production Forecast 2015-2025 (bpd, AGR %)
Figure 5.31 Peace River Oil Sands High Oil Price CAPEX and OPEX Forecasts 2015-2025 ($m)
Figure 5.32 Peace River Oil Sands High Oil Price Production Forecast 2015-2025 (Mbpd, AGR %)
Figure 5.33 Peace River Oil Sands Anticipated and Low Oil Price CAPEX and OPEX Forecasts 2015-2025 ($m)
Figure 5.34 Rest of the World Oil Sands CAPEX and OPEX Forecasts 2015-2025 ($m)
Figure 5.35 Rest of the World Oil Sands Production Forecast 2015-2025 ($m)
Figure 8.2 Ten Leading Companies in the Oil Sands Market (Market Share %)
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